The global economy has reached an important milestone in the second quarter of 2021, surpassing the pre-pandemic real GDP peak attained in the fourth quarter of 2019. The Asia-Pacific region was first to complete its recovery in late 2020, owing to a resilient mainland Chinese economy. North America’s recovery has coincided with that of the world. The Middle East & North Africa will reach this juncture in the third quarter, and Europe and Latin America will complete their recoveries in the final quarter of 2021.
After a 3.5% contraction in 2020, global real GDP is projected to increase 6.0% in 2021, its strongest advance since 1973. Growth will continue at a robust 4.6% pace in 2022 before settling to 3.0% in 2023–25. This month we updated our forecast for world growth, revising it up by 0.3 percentage point in 2021, reflecting brighter outlooks for the United States, Europe, Latin America, and mainland China.